Blowing a lead' Trump effect leaves Canada's Conservatives facing defeat

When the Canadian Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, emerged from a holding room, excited shouts erupted in a tsunami-like wave throughout the banquet hall.

- Leyland Cecco

When the Canadian Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, emerged from a holding room, excited shouts erupted in a tsunami-like wave throughout the banquet hall. Party faithful – some in the ill-fitting free T-shirts handed out by staffers – craned their necks for a glimpse of the man they hope will be the next Canadian prime minister.

The excitement at the rally this month came with an intensity that party strategists could normally only dream of. Poilievre's populist messaging has inspired a fervent response from supporters, who say he has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites.

And it appeared to have found a broader audience too: as recently as February, Poilievre enjoyed a 25-point lead over the governing Liberals. Pollsters estimated he and his party were on track for an unprecedented victory. But with less than two weeks before the federal election, one of the sharpest polling shifts in Canada's political history now has the Conservatives trailing well behind the Liberals.

The abrupt change in political mood – largely the result of Donald Trump's tariffs and threats to annex Canada – has prompted infighting within the party as it faces what is likely to be a catastrophic loss. The Conservatives have pinned their remaining hopes on a last-minute reversal of fortune.

Poilievre's confrontational style, his attack on "woke" politics and focus on the cost of living crisis has earned the career politician a cadre of devoted fans and fuelled a meteoric rise within the party.