Analysis: Sands are shifting as old voting blocs fragment

Fragmentation in British politics is not new. Disillusionment with the choices on offer is not new. The two-party share of the vote has been below 70% in four of the last six elections.

- Paula Surridge

Fragmentation in British politics is not new. Disillusionment with the choices on offer is not new. The two-party share of the vote has been below 70% in four of the last six elections. Six months before the 2019 general election the Brexit party topped the EU election results with the Liberal Democrats in second. The 2024 general election had the lowest two-party share in the modern-party system.

What's driving this change? Political scientists talk about the "demand" and "supply" sides of electoral politics. The voters are the demand side; what types of parties and positions they want to vote for. They don't always get their wish. Who appears on the ballot paper is the "supply" side of the equation. Increasingly, it is everyone.

This was evident in the general election, where all seats had at least five candidates and almost half had eight or more. At these local elections, almost everyone was able to vote for Reform UK if they wished to, something that wasn't even true at the 2024 general election.