Alarm over fall in net migration to UK risking labour shortages

Net immigration is expected to fall to 200,000 in 2026, with possible labour shortages in the hospitality and retail sectors, an independent adviser to the government has said.

- Rajeev Syal

Prof Brian Bell, the chair of the migration advisory committee, said the figure was then predicted to rise again to just below 300,000 in the medium term.

The prediction will be welcomed by No 10 after Keir Starmer pledged to cut net immigration to the UK "significantly" over the next four years.

Successive governments have tried unsuccessfully to cut net migration - the term used by the Office for National Statistics for the number of people coming to the UK, minus the number leaving. It climbed to a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and last year it stood at 728,000. The current provisional estimate in the year to December 2024 is 431,000.

Bell said the figure should drop again next year before rising a little the following year. "There was a very big fall in migration, with the most recent statistics where we're down to about 430,000," he said.