Shell shocker Can Russian advance be halted if American military aid dries up?

Ukraine began 2024 on the defensive and Kyiv's battlefield prospects are dimming further as Republicans in the US Congress seem increasingly intent on blocking future military aid. If Europe does not plug the gap, Ukraine risks slowmotion defeat from 2025.

- Dan Sabbagh

A simple figure sums up the problem. Ukraine is once again outgunned in this near two-yearold war: Russia is estimated to be firing 10,000 artillery shells a day to Ukraine's 2,000, a dismal ratio that may yet worsen in the absence of future US gifts of ammunition.

A recent report on the UK's Sky News highlighted Ukrainian gunners with the 22nd brigade, operating between Chasiv Yar and Russianheld Bakhmut, and their pleas for help and limited stockpiles of shells. Their Soviet-standard 152mm gun was fired only three times in a night to protect the supplies available.

"What that means is that Ukrainians can't suppress Russian artillery any more, and if the Ukrainians can't fire back, all they can do is try to survive," said Sam Cranny-Evans, of the Royal United Services Institute thinktank.

Russia, meanwhile, has managed a transition to a war economy. Analysis by Estonia has concluded that Moscow's factories will produce about 4.5m shells in 2024 (more than 12,000 a day), with Russia having lifted defence spending to a high but sustainable level of 6.5% of GDP. Smaller Ukraine is reliant on western industrial support, but the US political divisions mean the Pentagon has had no more money to spend since the beginning of January, while European efforts have faltered.

Europe had committed to produce im shells for Ukraine in the year to the end of March but has fallen short and will instead produce anywhere between 480,000 to 700,000, Estonia estimates.