Red shift - Resurgent Labour could end decade of SNP dominance

Last Thursday was a big day for Scottish Labour. The declaration that Labour had retaken Rutherglen and Hamilton West from the SNP prompted phones and social media to light up with triumphant messages from the winning party. With good reason. This was the best result for Labour in a Scottish byelection since the Second World War, and the worst for the SNP since the independence referendum upended Scottish politics.

- Robert Ford

Some caveats apply. This was one of the SNP's most marginal seats, where Labour prevailed as recently as 2017. A cloud of scandal hung over a contest triggered after the sitting MP Margaret Ferrier was sanctioned for repeatedly breaking Covid rules. As Boris Johnson has learned, voters judge such behaviour harshly.

This was nonetheless a stunning result. The swing to Labour, at 20 points, was nearly double what would be expected from opinion polls. If such a swing were replicated across Scotland in a general election, Labour could gain 40 seats or more, all but wiping out the SNP. A decade of nationalist dominance would be swept away.