May’s local polls could be ‘anyone but’ elections

While is Labour braced for a rout that could see off Starmer, a rising drive to keep out Farage is complicating expectations

- By Pippa Crerar

Local elections are often regarded as a referendum on the sitting government - with many previous administrations taking a bloody nose from the electorate but then successfully fighting back by the next general election.

Senior Labour figures have taken to reeling off a list of midterm results - 1999, 2003, 2012 - to prove that point. "As we get closer to the general election, it will be less about people's view of the parties generally and more about the choice in front of them," one said.

But even against that backdrop, this May’s local and devolved elections look likely to be a uniquely negative series of contests - in part because Nigel Farage now generates just as much ill feeling across the country as Keir Starmer.

While some voters are hoping to teach the government a lesson, others just as strongly want to keep Reform UK out of power - and rather fewer appear likely to cast their ballots with a positive view of who they support.

Whether that sentiment translates into an “anyone but Labour” choice or an “anyone but Reform” one, the pattern looks clear: this will be an “anyone but” set of elections.

Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common, said: “It’s rare to hear so much discussion about tactical voting. But more people are describing their vote in terms of who they want to stop rather than who they want to win.