International response America's allies hope for the best-but prepare for the worst

Western allies of the US are braced for the return of Donald Trump, still hoping for the best, but largely unprepared for what may prove to be a chaotic and disorientating worst.

- Patrick Wintour

The run-up to his inauguration sent out a catherine wheel of signals as Trump turned up the volume on tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico, vowed to buy - and if not, invade - Greenland and the Panama Canal, and pressed Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a Gaza ceasefire.

At the same time his pick as secretary of state, Marco Rubio, gave four and a half hours of evidence at the Senate foreign affairs committee, which in the breadth of his knowledge and views resembled less Steve Bannon and more James Baker III in his heyday.

Whether Rubio and the state department will hold sway on foreign policy is the question in Europe and will depend on the chief of staff, Susie Wiles, and national security adviser Mike Waltz.

Seeking signals amid the noise, distinguishing threats that presage action, as opposed to bargaining bluster, and locating the rationale for an administration decision is already keeping foreign diplomats in Washington up at night.

Trump has become more candid that unpredictability is his modus operandi. He told the Wall Street Journal, for instance, he was pleased that President Xi Jinping of China "respects me because he knows I am fucking crazy".

Unfortunately, fear of the madman recedes if he does not occasionally do something deranged. Many expect Trump to start fast, trying to unsettle his opponents and prove his America First approach has substance.