Fragile truce An agreement is in place-if it will hold matter is another

The hours-long delay in implementing the Gaza ceasefire agreement last Sunday was not a good omen for a deal that many fear could be doomed to failure as it moves through its challenging three phases.

- Peter Beaumont

While it is a truism that all negotiations to end conflicts rely on cautious trust-building and are highly vulnerable to spoilers, the deal to end 15 months of fighting in Gaza that followed Hamas's attack on 7 October 2023 is more fraught than most.

Analysts and observers have pointed out that the design of the agreement, constructed over three phases that require new negotiations to take place as the ceasefire goes forward, appears structured to invite multiple crises as it edges towards ever more difficult terrain. Trust on both sides has been negligible at best.

Hamas, unsurprisingly given the public statements of senior Israeli figures, is concerned Israel will seek to secure the return of the most vulnerable hostages, women, children and the ill and elderly, and then commence fighting again, perhaps at the time of the second phase.