Four years on Kyiv stays strong in face of Russia's small gains

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth grim year, has already gone on longer than the entire fight on the eastern front in the second world war.

- By Dan Sabbagh

The Soviets marched from Leningrad to Berlin in a little over 15 months in 1944-45; today the Russian rate of gain in Pokrovsk in Ukraine is 70 metres a day, in Kupiansk 23 metres, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The gains are trivial, given Ukraine’s size, amounting to 4,830 sq km during 2025 (about 0.8% of the country) - so the idea touted by the Russians, sometimes accepted by a credulous White House, that Ukraine is suffering a slow-motion defeat, is not accurate. In reality, even allowing for the fact that hundreds of thousands of homes are without electricity, heating and water after Russian bombing, Ukraine is clarifying its strategy and pushing back with modest success.

A Ukrainian counterattack north of Huliaipole, in the open terrain of Zaporizhzhia province, has gained an estimated 103 sq km this month, taking advantage of the belated decision by Elon Musk's Starlink to prevent Russian soldiers using the satellite communications system inside Ukraine. It follows on from Ukraine recapturing Kupiansk, in Kharkiv region, in December.

"The Kremlin is trying to create a narrative that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse," said Christina Harward, of the Institute for the Study of War. "It's completely false.