A PARIS SPRINGBOARD

The decade since the 2015 climate accord has been bruising for activists and the planet. Some experts insist progress is being made-but is it really enough?

- Fiona Harvey

Ten years on from the historic Paris climate summit, which ended with the world's first and only global agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions, it is easy to dwell on its failures.

But the successes go less remarked upon.

Renewable energy smashed records last year, growing by 15% and accounting for more than 90% of all new power generation capacity. Investment in clean energy topped $2tn, outstripping that into fossil fuels by two to one.

Electric vehicles now account for about a fifth of new cars sold around the world. Low-carbon power makes up more than half of the generation capacity of both China and India, with China's emissions now flattening, and most developed countries on a downward trend.

"The Paris agreement has set in motion a shift towards clean energy that no country can now ignore," says Laurence Tubiana, a former French diplomat who was one of the main architects of the Paris accord. Would it have happened without the Paris agreement? Unlikely, according to Bill Hare, chief executive of the Climate Analytics thinktank. "The 1.5C limit and the net zero goal have reshaped policy, finance, litigation and sectoral rules, helping to rewire how states, markets and institutions work," he says.

Look where temperatures were headed before Paris, if you want to judge its impact, says Ed Miliband, the UK's energy secretary. Before Paris, temperatures were on track for more than 4C of heating, a catastrophic level.

After Paris, that came down to 3C; after Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021, which reaffirmed the 1.5C pledge, carbon-cutting commitments brought the projected temperature rise to about 2.8C; today, the forecast stands at about 2.5C, if all existing promises are fulfilled.