Inflation likely eased further in March

Headline inflation likely eased slightly in March as prices of rice and fuel further dropped, analysts said.

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A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts conducted last week yielded a median estimate of 2% for the March consumer price index (CPI).

If realized, this would be slower than the 2.1% in February and the 3.7% clip in the same month a year ago.

Analysts’ March inflation rate estimates

This would also be the lowest monthly inflation in six months or since the 1.9% print in September.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has not yet released its month-ahead inflation forecast for March.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release March inflation data on Friday, April 4.

“For March, I’m looking at 2% inflation as food prices will likely continue to slow down, driven by good weather and further softening in rice prices,” Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp. economist Patrick M. Ella said.

Security Bank Corp. Vice-President and Research Division Head Angelo B. Taningco gave a March inflation forecast of 2%, citing “low food inflation due to declining rice prices and monthly price upticks in fish, meat, fruits, and vegetables.”

Rice inflation dropped to 4.9% in February from the 2.3% decline in January. This was the lowest rice inflation since the 5.7% contraction in April 2020.

The PSA had previously said rice inflation could remain in the negative for the rest of the year amid continued interventions by the government.

The government has slashed tariffs on rice imports to 15% starting July 2024.

“The reduction in rice tariffs will help bring prices lower than a year earlier,” Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said.

The Agriculture department in February declared a food security emergency on rice, which authorized the National Food Authority to release buffer stocks at subsidized prices.