IMF slashes Phl growth forecasts

The international Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for the Philippines from this year to the next, reflecting heightened global uncertainty arising from US tariff policy.

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In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.5% this year from the 6.1% projection in its January update.

It also lowered its 2026 forecast to 5.8% from 6.3% previously.

These would fall below the government’s 6-8% growth targets for this year to 2026.

The IMF said its forecasts consider the weaker-than-anticipated Philippine growth in the fourth quarter, as well as external headwinds stemming from heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

“Downward revisions to growth for 2025 and 2026 are observed throughout the region and globally, reflecting the recent external developments,” an IMF spokesperson said in an e-mail.

These include the “direct impact of higher tariffs on the Philippines’ goods exports to the US, downward revisions to trading partners’ growth, and impact of higher uncertainty and financial tightening,” it said.

US President Donald J. Trump on April 2 announced a barrage of reciprocal tariffs on nearly all of its trading partners, with a baseline rate of 10%.

While most of the higher reciprocal tariffs have been suspended until July, the baseline 10% tariff is still in effect.

The Philippines was slapped with a 17% tariff rate on its exports to the US, the second lowest in Southeast Asia.

The IMF said its WEO forecasts are based on information available as of April 4 and are subject to “significant uncertainty.”