Britain's Falling Birthrate Sparks Ministerial Concern Amid Debate Over Its Implications

Britain is facing a significant demographic shift, with birthrates falling to their lowest levels since records began in 1938.

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This trend has alarmed politicians and policymakers who worry about the long-term implications of an ageing population and a shrinking workforce.

Yet, as Larry Elliott argues, this demographic change may not be the disaster many fear; in fact, it could bring some positive outcomes for the UK and its economy.

An Ageing Population

The UK's population has grown steadily over recent decades, rising from under 60 million at the start of the 2000s to around 67.2 million in 2022. Projections suggest it will increase further by about five million by 2032. Despite this growth, the fertility rate—the average number of children born per woman—in England and Wales currently sits at 1.44. This figure is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population over time.

If this low birthrate trend continues, and if net migration decreases, the UK's total population could eventually begin to shrink. This has sparked concerns among government ministers and policymakers, including Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, who recently voiced "worrying repercussions" and called for policies to make it easier for women to have children.

Societal Changes and Economic Realities