Inflation May Align With RBI's Projection

Inflation is expected to remain in line with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projections in the first quarter (Q1) of Financial Year FY26, driven by a favourable statistical base and continued deflation in essential commodities, according to the latest report by Bank of Baroda.

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Taking the influencing factors into consideration, the RBI policy projects CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 at 3.7 per cent, with Q1 at 2.9 per cent; Q2 at 3.4 per cent; Q3 at 3.9 per cent; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent. The BoB Essential Commodities Index (BoB ECI) remained in deflationary territory in June 2025, declining by -1.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY), compared to a -0.6 per cent drop in May 2025. This marks the third consecutive month of deflation, largely driven by sharp price corrections in vegetables and pulses, buoyed by improved production and favourable supply conditions.