Global rice prices set to remain high until 2025

According to the recent World Bank Global Commodity Outlook, global rice prices are anticipated to remain elevated until at least 2025.

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This persistence in high prices is attributed to export restrictions imposed by major rice-producing countries and the ongoing threat of El Niño weather patterns. In 2023, global rice prices rose by an average of 28% compared to the previous year, and the report forecasts another 6% increase in 2024. Contributing factors include concerns about El Niño, policy responses from significant rice-exporting and -importing nations, and the concentration of rice production and exports in specific geographical areas and markets.

This concerning projection should draw particular attention in India, as the country is facing a potential decrease in domestic kharif rice production in 2023 due to a weak monsoon in August. In response, the Indian government has already imposed restrictions on rice exports, removing nearly 40% of supplies from the global market.