Geopolitical conflicts could derail economic progress

According to a recent report by global information provider Dun & Bradstreet (D&B), geopolitical conflicts are posing a significant risk to global economic activity, potentially threatening the growth momentum observed in industrial sectors. The report highlights concerns about persistent price pressures, particularly as a result of geopolitical conflicts that have the potential to keep crude oil prices at elevated levels.

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One key factor contributing to the uncertainty in global commodity prices is the instability in the Middle East. In addition, the report notes that inflation in cereals and pulses remains high, while vegetable prices are starting to stabilize. Regarding India's external sector, D&B's report anticipates that the consumer price index will stand at 4.7 per cent and the wholesale price index at minus 0.5 per cent for October 2023. The report also suggests that the Indian rupee may experience minimal relief, as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. The combination of high crude oil prices and the strength of the U.S. dollar is likely to exert pressure on the Indian rupee. In response, the Reserve Bank of I