PH debt-to-GDP hits 20-year high: A cautionary peak

The Philippine national government's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 63.1 percent by the end of the second quarter of 2025, marking the highest level in two decades.

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Just three months prior, the ratio had surged to 62 percent, already the sharpest rise since 2005. This escalation arrives at a moment when fiscal prudence should take center stage, not retreat.

What does this milestone truly signify?

The debt-to-GDP ratio is a critical gauge of a nation’s fiscal health. Crossing the 60 percent threshold is an indicator of structural vulnerability. The World Bank projects a gradual easing, estimating a decline to around 60.2 percent by end-2025, and further to 59.7 percent in 2026 assuming consistent growth and disciplined fiscal consolidation. However, these forecasts are made with a caveat, as they hinge on steady economic performance without new shocks to revenue or spending.