Environmental stress and violent conflict in northern Nigeria

CLIMATE change is increasingly recognised as a threat multiplier in fragile contexts, amplifying preexisting tensions and exacerbating tisks of violent conflict. In Africa, where millions depend on climate-sensitive livelihoods, environmental stress converges with weak governance, poverty and insecurity to create highly volatile conditions.

- ABRAHAM ENAME MINKO-

A GENERAL view of shelters at the Malmari 2 internally displaced persons (IDP) site, Lake Chad Province, Chad, on June 23, 2025. Boko Haram has sowed terror among those living around Lake Chad for some 15 years.

(AFP)

Nowhere is this dynamic more visible than in northern Nigeria, where desertification, erratic rainfall and the shrinking of Lake Chad have profoundly altered the socioeconomic landscape.

This environmental crisis has fuelled resource competition between farmers and pastoralist herders. Competition for scarce arable land and grazing routes has fuelled recurring violent clashes, particularly in states such as Benue, Plateau and Kaduna.

The International Crisis Group highlights that these conflicts now claim more lives annually than the Boko Haram insurgency. At the same time, climate-induced displacement and livelihood insecurity have provided fertile ground for extremist groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which exploit local grievances to expand recruitment and territorial influence.

While the Nigerian government has launched initiatives such as grazing reserves and the Great Green Wall Project (African Union Great Green Wall), their effectiveness remains limited due to poor implementation, governance deficits, and escalating insecurity.

Understanding how climate change intersects with violent conflict in northern Nigeria is therefore critical for shaping climate-sensitive peacebuilding strategies, enhancing resilience and informing regional security responses.

Environmental stress and resource competition in northern Nigeria represent one of the most pressing contemporary security challenges facing the Sahel region, where extensive cultivation and overgrazing have been compounded by desertification, rendering large swathes of land in northern Nigeria unproductive.