India-Pak halt conflict: Will the fragile peace last?

India and Pakistan stepped back from the brink of catastrophe on 10 May after a US-brokered ceasefire brought rapidly escalating hostilities between the two countries to an end. But tensions are still running high.

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The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, said on 12 May that India has only “paused” its military action against Pakistan and would “retaliate on its own terms” to any attacks.

The latest episode in the long-running conflict between these nuclear powers was triggered on 22 April. Militants from a group known as the Resistance Front, which India says is a proxy for the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group, killed 26 tourists in the picturesque resort town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. India alleges Pakistan’s involvement, which it denies.

The fact that India and Pakistan were able to agree to a ceasefire as escalations spiralled is reason for optimism. It shows that internal calculations and international pressure can pull the two parties back from the brink. However, the ceasefire represents an incredibly precarious peace. Can it be sustained?

Recent experience shows that sustained ceasefires are possible between the two states. In February 2021, India and Pakistan’s militaries signed a ceasefire to end four months of cross-border skirmishes. The agreement was a reaffirmation of an original ceasefire understanding from 2003.