How the U.S. economy became hooked on AI spending

Growth has been bolstered by data-center investment and stock-market wealth. A reversal could raise the risk of recession.

- Konrad Putzier

Business investment in AI may have driven up to half of real GDP growth in the first half.

(REUTERS)

The turbulence that hit stocks tied to artificial intelligence last week highlights a broader risk to the economy. Growth has become so dependent on AI-related investment and wealth that if the boom turns to bust, it could take the broader economy with it.

Business investment in AI might have accounted for as much as half of the growth in gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, in the first six months of the year. Rising AI stocks are also boosting household wealth, leading to more consumer spending, especially in recent months.

“It’s certainly plausible that the economy would already be in a recession” without the AI boom, said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.

Take away AI spending, and the economy looks in worse shape. Although job growth was higher than expected in September, job creation has nonetheless slowed this year and the unemployment rate is inching up. Private business investment excluding AI-related categories is mostly flat since 2019, according to Deutsche Bank. Outside of datacenters, other commercial construction, such as shopping centers or office buildings, is down.

That makes the economy more dependent on AI. “It’s the only source of investment right now,” said Stephen Juneau, an economist at Bank of America.

Bank of America estimates that just four companies—Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet and Meta Platforms—will make $344 billion in capital expenditures this year (equivalent to roughly 11% of GDP), up from $228 billion last year.

Barclays estimates that investment in software, computer equipment and data centers boosted GDP growth by around 1 percentage point annualized in the first half of 2025. AI explained much, though not all, of that.