Want to Invest in Technologies of the Future? Good Luck With That

Most 'new' technologies fail even though winning picks may eventually seem obvious in hindsight

- Devina Mehra

We have all read the thrilling story of the Wright brothers' flight—the first time humans could fly in a powered, heavier-than-air machine. And they did it not just once, but four times in a single day, the last flight lasting almost a minute. They had invited the media to the event, so you would think that their stupendous achievement would have been splashed on the front pages of all newspapers.

But what really happened? Only one paper carried the story. The rest were skeptical, asking whether it had really happened, arguing that it was too short to be meaningful, etc. This went on for a long time. Surprised? Don't be. This is what happens with most 'new' technologies. Even the most earth-shaking ones often spend years, even decades, in the wilderness before becoming the 'overnight' successes we know of.

I used to meet renewable energy companies in India in the mid-90s. Reva, an Indian electric car, was launched nearly 25 years ago. But we think of electric vehicles and renewable energy as recent phenomena. And this is from the list of technologies that made it. The list of those that did not or were hyped to the skies but were ho-hum successes at best is very long.