U.S. Drillers Say Peak Shale Production Has Arrived

President Trump, who promised to uplift oil and gas, is set to preside over a decline in shale production.

- Benoit Morenne & Collin Eaton

Drillers that made the U.S. the world's top oil producer say they are hitting the brakes to weather a period of low crude prices and that the gusher has likely peaked. Some of the largest producers, including Diamondback Energy, recently told investors that they would be spending less this year and plan to drop rigs.

The U.S. is on track to see crude oil production modestly increase in 2025—in part because of growth in fields offshore—before declining next year by 1% to 13.33 million barrels a day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That would mark the first year-on-year decrease in roughly a decade, outside the Covid-19 pandemic.

"We believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices," Travis Stice, chief executive of Permian driller Diamondback, said in a letter to shareholders last week.

Trump had promised that his administration would bring a new dawn for America's frackers by killing regulations and allowing them to build new pipelines. But even before he took office, U.S. oil production was on track to flatten out and fall by the end of the decade.

Now, the upheaval in the global economy induced by his tariffs, coupled with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies' decision to pump more oil, have likely compressed that timeline, crude-oil CEOs say. The disruption has been most notable in the Permian Basin, the country's biggest oil field.