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The rush to beat tariffs is distorting the economy. It has barely started.

Mint Mumbai

|

May 02, 2025

Surging imports, while likely temporary, are frustrating Trump's goal to cut trade imbalances

- Alistair MacDonald, Chelsey Dulaney & Hannah Miao

The rush to beat tariffs is distorting the economy. It has barely started.

The rush to get goods to the U.S. ahead of President Trump's tariffs has already led to huge distortions in global trade patterns and economic data. It isn't over yet.

Global businesses selling everything from booze to skin cream to telecom equipment have said they boosted shipments to the U.S. in the first few months of the year ahead of Trump's "Liberation Day" levies at the start of April.

U.S. imports surged more than 40% at an annualized rate in the first quarter, data showed Wednesday. That drove down gross domestic product by 0.3%.

Now, there is a second leg to the rush. The president's decision on April 9 to pause so-called reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on every trading partner except China has presented businesses around the world with a new deadline to beat. The stakes are high: Many Asian imports could face tariffs of more than 40% while goods from the European Union are in line for a 20% levy.

Roger Lund has a container full of Christmas decorations from Germany that he needs in Baltimore port by July 8, after which the tariff he pays on the cargo is set to double.

His retailer, the Christmas Haus, normally imports a container full of 20,000 Christmas baubles, nutcrackers, lights and other items in late July. This year, Lund moved up the cargo to leave Bremen, Germany, on June 2.

"Quite frankly I still don't know if we'll make it," he said of beating the deadline and being sure of only a 10% tariff. "It is maddening as a business owner who relies on certainty to plan my budgets."

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