The Indo-Pacific's balance of power seems back in play

The Indo-Pacific in 2025 was marked by transition and adaptation.

- HARSH V. PANT & PRATNASHREE BASU

It was buffetted by US unpredictability and Chinese assertiveness. Yet, it demonstrated greater agency than at any point in the past decade. While President Donald Trump's mixed signals did not lead to a summary US disengagement with the region, they did prompt regional actors to look less towards Washington for security guarantees and more to the building of diversified networks of cooperation.The impact of Trump 2.0: The year saw a stark turn in US engagement, with Trump's approach to the Indo-Pacific characterized by unpredictability at best and rent-seeking at worst. The recently-released US National Security Strategy was emblematic of this ambiguity, prioritizing quid pro quoties over legacy commitments and the use of muscular rhetoric while offering little doctrinal clarity. This has sent out mixed signals on China, as its deterrence rhetoric coexists with policy fuzziness and even deference in some parts, with US partners struggling to identify US thresholds for action, particularly on high-stakes issues such as Taiwan.