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RBI holds policy rates as 'Goldilocks' era prevails

Mint Mumbai

|

February 07, 2026

Pegs growth higher, says inflation stays benign; yields rise on liquidity worries

- Anshika Kayastha

After a surprise rate cut in December, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Friday paused at 5.25% and maintained its ‘neutral’ stance, citing strong growth, low inflation and easing trade-related currency pressures.

Of 10 economists polled by Mint, nine expected the status quo on rates, while one anticipated a 25-basis-point (bps) cut to 5%. In December, the rate-setting panel had cut the benchmark repo rate by 25 bps.

The central bank raised its growth projection for fiscal year 2026 (FY26) by 10 bps to 7.4% on the back of the recent trade deals and strong domestic demand. The gross domestic product (GDP) projection for FY26 was higher than 6.8-7.2% pegged by the Economic Survey released last week.

The growth forecast for the first quarter (Ql) of FY27 has also increased to 6.9% from 6.7% earlier, and for Q2 of the next financial year to 7% from 6.8%. The Indian economy had posted a surprising six-quarter high growth of 8.2% in the quarter ended September, beating the RBI’s 7% projection.

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