November gold rush widens goods trade deficit to a record

A fourfold increase in gold imports to almost $15 billion pushed up India's overall imports in November while exports fell, widening trade deficit for the month to an all-time high.

- Dhirendra Kumar

Trade deficit, or the amount by which the value of imports exceeds exports, hit a record $37.84 billion, compared with $21.31 billion in November 2023. A Bloomberg economists' poll had predicted a deficit of $23 billion.

Data released by the commerce ministry on Monday showed a 27% year-on-year (y-o-y) surge in merchandise imports, accompanied by a 4.9% y-o-y fall in exports in November. Meanwhile, services exports put up a smart show, with November surplus touching a record $18 billion.

The widening goods trade deficit comes at a time of slowing economic growth and urban consumption in India, persistent inflation, and a falling currency. The government, though, is hopeful of a rebound in trade.

The fact that gold prices actually fell month-on-month in November means the increase in import was due to higher volumes, Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd said.

Experts pointed out that two key factors that drove the widening of trade deficit—fall in export realization of finished petroleum products and a record spike in import of gold—are temporary.