Economic numbers stir up a range of emotions

Updates to estimates of GDP growth in past years might evoke euphoria while India's current economic impulses may justify some anxiety. A Gordian knot in the economy needs to be cut

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Hard data is supposed to be cold and impersonal but also has the capacity to evoke myriad feelings. Consider the series of national-accounts data released on 28 February: India's gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter from October to December 2024, second advance GDP estimates for 2024-25, first revised estimate for the previous year and the final estimate for 2022-23. The numbers stir euphoria over upgrades to old data: GDP growth stands revised to 9.2% for 2023-24 and to 7.6% for 2022-23. Then there is relief that the second advance estimate for 2024-25, the current year, has GDP growing by 6.5%, higher than the 6.4% estimated earlier. Yet, some anxiety seems inescapable when this number is viewed against the 6.2% figure for the third quarter of 2024-25; the economy must grow by 7.6% in the fourth quarter to attain 6.5% growth for the full year. In the face of street scepticism, chief economic advisor (CEA) V.