Buckle up: Turbulence in the East seems set to rise this year

East Asia will probably become more volatile as tensions deepen

- KARISHMA VASWANI

This is the season when columnists turn to prophecy and then congratulate themselves a year later for getting some of it right. I'm afraid I am about to join the club.

As I predicted at the end of last year, Asia in 2025 revolved around three main forces: the blossoming bromance between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, rising pressure on Taiwan, and a newly emboldened Kim Jong Un drawing closer to both Moscow and Beijing.

These dynamics will only get more obvious in 2026. The region is heading into an increasingly precarious year, with deepening tensions that will have a cascading effect on all of us.

The Trump-Xi bromance could sour: On the surface, Trump and Xi appear to have found a new warmth—but it’s fragile. Xi won the trade war in 2025, which means Trump is going into next year on the back foot. That won't be lost in Washington, no matter how loud the bluster. While the rapprochement has been welcomed by markets, a lot could go wrong. They will have an opportunity to meet at least four times in 2026, providing multiple occasions for relations to head south.