India Can Hit 6.5% Growth If US Trade Deal Finalized By Oct: Virmani

India could grow at 6.5% in FY26—defying projections—if a trade deal with the US is wrapped up in the next six months, Niti Aayog member Arvind Virmani said.

- Rhik Kundu

"No matter the global uncertainty, a clear and definite bilateral trade agreement by September-October would be enough to get growth back to 6.5%," Virmani told Mint.

But if this uncertainty persists until December, that growth won't materialize, he added.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% from 6.5%, citing trade risks from the US-led global tariff war.

The IMF's revision followed similar cuts by S&P Global, the Asian Development Bank and Moody's Analytics, which cut its calendar 2025 growth forecast for India to 6.1%, down by 30 basis points from its March projection, again citing US tariff hikes.