Is this a turning point in world politics? Don't bet on it

The turmoil of the last year-and-a half—tariff wars and physical wars (Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine), the abduction of a head of state and assassination of another, territorial ambitions and tattered alliances—has led to claims that the Pax Americana of stable global institutions managing commerce and conflict has ended.

- SANJOY CHAKRAVORTY

If that is true, what comes next? This uncertainty has fostered many forecasts of the future of global politics by policy pundits.

Consider the analysis of Hal Brands, a historian at Johns Hopkins University and the American Enterprise Institute. Brands is a well-known neoconservative with strong ties to the Republican Party’s security and foreign policy establishment. He has been called a “war intellectualizer/lover” for his hawkish positions on US power. Agree with him or not, his views carry weight. In a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine, Brands identifies three possible scenarios for the coming era.