Suicidal Gamble

Pakistan's outdated provocation in the form of Pahalgam terror attack has left it economically fragile, diplomatically isolated, and militarily outmatched

- Brig Brijesh Pandey (Retd) & MSS Husen

In this era of Grey Zone Warfare, military is just one of the four critical dimensions of response to an enemy action; other ones being diplomatic, informational and economic. Pakistan's trump card, to wriggle out of the situation it has got itself into, has to be sourced from one of these four. Also, Pakistan's ability to withstand India's response will also be a product of these four components of Comprehensive National Power (CNP).

Assessment of CNP

Diplomatically, Pakistan is increasingly isolated. Even its traditional backers like the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and UAE are fatigued with Pakistan's inability to reform and have stronger interests tied to India's market and stability. More so, the geostrategic environment has shifted favorably for India. Pakistan has miserably failed to factor in this change while sponsoring Pahalgam genocide of 26 Hindu tourists.

Informational dimension of warfare has gained ground over the years and the same is evident from the Israel-Hamas conflict and Russia-Ukraine War. It involves Perception Management, building a narrative and public diplomacy. On all these counts, credibility of the nation and the contextual correctness matter. Due to its history of using terror as an instrument of state policy, separatism festering within and friends turning aliens, it will not be able to withstand India's information warfare offensive.

Economically, Pakistan is on life support. Its dependency on IMF bailouts, Chinese debt, and Gulf funding leaves it too vulnerable to sustain a prolonged or even limited conflict.