India’s quiet Arctic awakening

As the Arctic warms four times faster than the global average, its shifting winds and melting ice are reshaping India’s monsoon, economy and climate security calculus

- ANUSREETA DUTTA & ZAHID SULTAN

For a long time, the Arctic Ocean was thought of as a distant, icy border that was important for a few northern countries but too far away for India and other countries. That point of view is changing quickly. What happens in the High North has a bigger effect on the whole subcontinent as polar ice melts and weather patterns change. India’s quiet but planned actions in the Arctic are not just for show. The changing relationship between the Arctic and the La Nifia-monsoon system, which supports over a billion lives, has a big effect on climate security.

The Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the global average. Melting sea ice creates new shipping channels, such as the Northern Sea Route, and releases oil, gas, and key minerals. Aside from geopolitics, this warming is affecting global climate systems. Scientists are discovering stronger correlations between Arctic sea-ice depletion, altering jet streams, and higher occurrences of extreme weather in the tropics.

For India, this is nota hypothetical issue. The stability of the southwest monsoon—a climate engine for agriculture, energy, and water security—is inextricably linked to global atmospheric circulation. Over the past decade, the combination of La Nifia occurrences in the Pacific with warming trends in the Arctic has emerged as a crucial factor impacting rainfall patterns in the Indian subcontinent. La Nina, a chilly phase of the El Nifio-Southern Oscillation, often causes above-average rainfall in India. However, subsequent years have revealed a more complex picture. During the triple-dip La Nina period from 2020 to 2023, India experienced unprecedented monsoon variability, including disastrous floods in certain regions and dry spells in others. Climate researchers are increasingly linking this instability to the interaction of La Nina and Arctic warming.