A Risky Trilateral

Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir’s push for a Saudi-Turkey defence axis signals ambition, insecurity and a potentially unstable new security alignment

- SHANTANU MUKHARJI

As Pakistan's Army Chief consolidates power at home, his effort to stitch together a Saudi-Turkey security alignment may reshape regional equations—and unsettle India

Asim Munir, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff (COAS), continues to be on a jingoistic spree by forging new military alliances. In September last year, at Munir’s behest, Pakistan struck a military alliance with Saudi Arabia. The main highlight of the deal is that any military aggression against one of these countries will be treated as an attack on that country. Munir’s long association with, and stay in, Saudi Arabia is well known, and Saudi Arabia itself appeared increasingly isolated due to the rapidly changing geopolitical scene, particularly after President Trump assumed office.

Significantly, however, a new development has now come into focus, with Turkey believed to be the third party in this trilateral defence arrangement and more than willing to join. The emerging security partnership appears to be a response to ongoing ambiguity in an era of declining alliance certainty, Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its security partnerships, while Turkey aims to expand its Middle Eastern role—signified by its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) membership and pursuit of strategic autonomy. Pakistan, for its part, seeks to enlarge its Middle Eastern footprint and look beyond the Gulf to draw multiple benefits from this strategic engagement. All three states are constrained by different priorities, which do not make them natural allies or partners. Saudi Arabia prioritises its Vision 2030 agenda, its flagship Neom City project close to the Yemeni border, the diplomatic and military containment of Iran, and, above all, regime security.