Trade war fallout looms over Asia; PH less exposed - Oxford Economics

Asian nations would be dragged into the intensifying trade and geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington, though the Philippines may emerge unscathed due to its neutral position in trade with both China and the United States (US), according to think tank Oxford Economics.

- BEN ARNOLD DE VERA

In a Sept. 22 report, Oxford Economics senior economist Thomas Rudgley said that amid rising tensions between the two economic superpowers, “trade policy escalating beyond tariffs to sanctions poses significant risk to global supply chains, with concerns that other nations could be pulled into the geopolitical standoff." "We identify Japan and South Korea as the most likely to be entangled as the US and China look to gain influence through foreign policy," Oxford Economics said. "Key supply-chain hubs Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines will probably also be in the crossfire, as will India because of its growing regional importance." While Japan and South Korea are considered as "double exposed" for their huge exposure to trade with China and the US, Oxford Economics said that they are "the most likely to get a policy reprieve and exemptions given the size of their economi