Export growth hits year-low in Aug.

Philippine merchandise exports grew at their slowest pace so far this year in August, as United States (US) tariffs took effect and exporters' front-loading of outbound shipments ended.

- BEN ARNOLD DE VERA

The latest preliminary Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data on Tuesday, Sept. 30, showed that the 4.6-percent year-on-year goods exports growth in August was the weakest expansion since the 1.9-percent decline recorded in December 2024.

Shipments of Philippine-made products abroad increased by 9.6 percent year-on-year in January, 12.8 percent in February, 8.7 percent in March, 7.6 percent in April, 15.5 percent in May, 26.9 percent in June, and 17.6 percent in July-the seven months leading to the 19-percent tariff slapped by the US on imports from the Philippines starting Aug. 7.

US President Donald Trump, since winning the presidential election in November 2024, had threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs and formalized them through his so-called "Liberation Day" last April, even as actual implementation was pushed back several times.

"The slowdown to 4.6-percent [exports] growth in August likely reflects two things: the bite of new US tariffs starting to kick in, and the tapering off of exporters' front-loading ahead of those tariffs. It's a classic case of demand pulled forward, now easing," said Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co.

Robert Dan Roces, group economist at SM Investments Corp. (SMIC), said the August goods exports growth rate "reflects both timing effects: earlier front-loading by exporters ahead of US tariffs created an artificial bump in previous months, and when those shipments normalized, growth softened."