A push to renew free trade accord

Talks begin on future of treaty by the U.S., Mexico and Canada that replaced NAFTA.

- By PAUL WISEMAN AND MARIA VERZA

THE U.S. wants changes to the treaty and would be willing to pull out of the pact, a Trump trade official said.

(JUDI BOTTONI Associated Press)

Every day, more than $4 billion worth of goods cross the United States’ borders with Canada and Mexico—U.S. auto parts headed for car factories in northern Mexico, cartons of Mexican avocados bound for California supermarkets, Canadian aluminum destined to become cans of Campbell Soup.

Much of this bustling cross-border commerce is duty-free, thanks to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, that President Trump negotiated with America’s northern and southern neighbors during his first term.

But the future of USMCA, which took effect, July 1, 2020, is cloudy as the three countries begin what could be a tempestuous attempt to renew the pact this year. The United States is demanding changes to the treaty, and the top U.S. trade negotiator told Politico in December that Trump would be willing to pull the country out of the pact if he can’t get the deal he wants. Trump also suggested in the fall that the United States could negotiate separate deals with Canada and Mexico, ending the three-nation North American bloc that previous administrations saw as crucial to competing economically with China and the European Union.

The talks kick off Monday between U.S. and Mexican trade officials.

The North American economies could agree to renew USMCA as it is for 16 more years, a prospect that appears unlikely. Or they could keep working on ways to improve it; under a convoluted renewal process, they have until 2036 to reach an agreement — or the pact expires,