Trump Wavers, Iran Readies: Who Will Strike First?

Rumors swirl around US President Donald Trump’s abrupt cancellation of new air strikes on Iran.

- Shivan Mahendrarajah/ The Cradle

What is undeniable is that the US military has few assets in the Persian Gulf.Trump has since ordered reinforcements.

Israel's attempt to destabilize Iran from within has failed, but new pretexts for war are emerging. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff recently communicated with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during which he is said to have issued outrageous demands - terminate enrichment, handover enriched uranium, and reduce missile ranges and stockpiles — effectively, a demand for capitulation, which Washington knows Tehran will reject. The US will claim “Tran refuses to negotiate in good faith” as casus belli.

Iran’s military doctrine is fundamentally defensive; Israel's is not. But that posture may be changing. In August 2025, retired Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) General Yahya Safavi, senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, declared: “We must adopt an offensive strategy.” In a January statement, Iran’s Defense Council said, “within the framework of legitimate defense, the Islamic Republic of Iran does not limit itself to reacting after action and considers objective signs of threat as part of the security equation.”

“Preemptive War” is to strike first to seize the initiative when confronting an imminent threat. The textbook study is Israel’s Six-Day War (1967), following the blockade of the Tiran Straits, the mobilization of Arab armies, and the hostile rhetoric.

“Preventive War,” however, is to counter a hazy threat: former US president George W. Bush's 2003 Iraq War and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 2025 Iran War are cases in point.