Kashmir's Next Big Test

The new Zone VI classification should guide everything from land-use plans to school retrofits. Earthquakes are natural events, but disasters happen when we fail to prepare.

- Dr. Afroz Ahmad Shah

The Kashmir Valley is a distinct topographic depression in the northwestern Himalayas, formed by ongoing deformation associated with the India-Eurasia collision.

The valley’s origin lies in plate convergence that created the Himalayas and a complex system of faults, folds, and intermontane basins.

This tectonic environment makes Kashmir highly susceptible to earthquakes, reflecting both its geological setting and its associated risks.

Historically, several earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding 7 have occurred along the Himalayan front. The most recent major event in the region was the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake (Mw 7.6), which caused more than 80,000 deaths and extensive damage.

A similar-magnitude event would likely produce far fewer losses in countries such as Japan, Taiwan, or the United States, where seismic design is embedded within engineering practice.

This contrast highlights the role of scientific and engineering preparedness in reducing earthquake impacts.

The 2025 national seismic zonation map released by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) recognises the high seismic potential of the Himalayan belt by classifying the entire arc, including Jammu and Kashmir, as Zone VI, the highest hazard category in India.

The updated zonation acknowledges the potential for large earthquakes generated by long-locked segments of the Main Himalayan Thrust and associated structures.

This represents a more realistic assessment of seismic hazard for Kashmir, and has direct implications for its infrastructure safety, planning, and policy.

Seismology consistently demonstrates that earthquakes are natural processes, rather than disasters by themselves.

The long gaps between major events may give an impression of safety, but tectonic strain continues to accumulate.

Disasters occur when vulnerable infrastructure is exposed to strong shaking.