J&K's Shifting Numbers

The growth narrative of Jammu and Kashmir is gaining headlines, but on the ground, inequality, inflation, and fragile livelihoods tell a different story. For many, prosperity remains out of reach.

- Malik Daniyal

Jammu & Kashmir's economic outlook for 2024-25 looks optimistic on paper. With real GSDP projected to grow at 7.06%, and nominal figures expected to climb over 11%, the region seemingly signals a return to macroeconomic stability.

The per capita income, too, is set to rise by 10.6%, crossing 1.54 lakh. These numbers, tabled in the latest Economic Survey by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, make for confident headlines. But they don't convey the discomfort beneath this so-called recovery. Despite the outward sheen of economic progress, the lived reality for many in J&K remains unchanged.

Growth, by its very definition, must be inclusive. Yet in this case, the figures orbit high above the households they claim to uplift. Can a 7% GDP growth rate, without structural correction, deliver not just jobs—but dignity?

The composition of this growth shows that the tertiary sector dominates, contributing over 61% to GSDP—driven largely by tourism and services. Agriculture and manufacturing trail behind, contributing 20% and 18.3%, respectively.

A region with a deep agrarian and craft-based identity is now overwhelmingly service-reliant, exposing it to volatility. Tourism may have hit record numbers in 2024, but its gains remain unequally distributed. Luxury operators thrive while peripheral players, like artisans and small-scale hoteliers, continue to struggle.

This service-sector tilt is further compromised by the informal nature of employment. Most tourism-linked jobs are seasonal, underpaid, and devoid of any social security net. Weavers in Srinagar still earn wages frozen at 2019 levels, even though handicraft exports have reportedly increased. What kind of growth celebrates exports while the exporter's household runs on 5-year-old pay?