Polls at north and south

Will Donald Trump return to the Oval Office? Will the Labour Party finally end the Conservative's 13-year streak in the UK? Will the new government in Taiwan lean towards or away from Beijing?

- Sanya Mathur

These are the questions that will be answered this year, with a number of countries scheduled to hold elections. In fact, there is the possibility of a change in leadership in nearly 40 countries, which together account for 41% of the world's population and 42% of its GDP. So, 2024 could reshape global politics and the democratic order.

The most consequential election will be the November one in the United States, where former President Donald Trump is eyeing a return to the White House. With Trump's various legal challenges, including his trial in the 2021 Capitol riot, yet to begin, it is difficult to tell if he will indeed be on the ballot at all. As things stand, he is polling high enough to set the stage for a rematch with Joe Biden. In that scenario, Trump has a slight lead over Biden nationally.

But world leaders and policy analysts are wary of a US President with an "America first" agenda in the White House again. Abroad, it could endanger US support for Ukraine, participation in NATO, ties with China, efforts towards fighting the climate crisis, and involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict, including as a key mediator.

At home, apart from the impact on abortion and minority rights, immigration issues and gun control, talks on the US debt ceiling, which affect markets around the world, could be stymied.