The path before India as Bangladesh transitions

New Delhi's approach must balance immediate pressures with longer- term vision and tactical adjustments with strategic consistency

- Harsh Vardhan Shringla

South Asia today presents a study in contrast. While India's polity and economy have maintained resilience, our immediate neighbourhood faces profound transitions that will shape the regional architecture for decades to come.

Bangladesh, our largest land neighbour, stands at such a crossroads. After a student-led uprising ousted the Sheikh Hasina government last year, it is scheduled to hold its first general elections on February 12, 2026. How we navigate this moment will define not merely bilateral relations, but the broader question of what kind of regional and global power India aspires to be.

Over the past 15 years, Bangladesh emerged as one of India's most successful partnerships in South Asia, a template for what neighbourhood cooperation could achieve. This led to improved border infrastructure and connectivity, and resulted in a 600% increase in bilateral trade from 2009 to 2024. Dhaka's decisive action against insurgent safe havens in its territory directly contributed to improved security conditions in India's northeastern states.

What has transpired in Bangladesh since mid-2024 merits careful analysis. The economic indicators are stark. GDP growth, at 6.1% in 2023, has declined to an estimated 3.3-4% in FY25. Inflation, around 5.6% under the previous administration, surged to 10.87% by September 2025. Between July and December 2024, Bangladesh lost an estimated 2.1 million jobs. With approximately 32 million young people either unemployed or outside the education system in a population of 170 million, the World Bank projects that an additional three million Bangladeshis could be pushed into poverty in 2025. Economic distress of this magnitude creates conditions for political volatility and, historically, ideological radicalisation.