Refining India’s future in critical minerals

New Delhi must take deliberate and coordinated steps to establish its own midstream capabilities to avoid dependence on external actors

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The global scramble for critical minerals is no longer a future concern; it is a live strategic contest, and India is in danger of arriving late.

As countries race to lock in supply chains for clean energy and digital technologies, the real battle is not over who mines the ore or who assembles the final product, but who controls the midstream — the processing stage that turns raw minerals into usable, high-purity materials. This is where power in the global economy is being consolidated, and without urgent action to build domestic processing capacity, India risks becoming permanently dependent on external actors.

Presently, the global midstream landscape is strikingly concentrated. China controls nearly 90% of processing capacity for key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earths. Even when countries like Australia or Chile mine the ores, they often end up being refined in China before reentering global markets as high-value materials. This structural asymmetry gives Beijing disproportionate leverage in green and digital value chains, with ripple effects across the global economy. Against this backdrop,

India must now take deliberate and coordinated steps to establish its own midstream capabilities.

First, India must secure reliable and diversified feedstock for its future processing industry. The Geological Survey of India aims to undertake 1,200 exploration projects by 2031, which will be a crucial step for strategic self-sufficiency. However, developing a new mine typically takes an average of 15 years for most minerals. Therefore, in parallel to developing domestic mines, India must also secure a steady feedstock of raw ores in the short-to-medium term from resource-rich nations. This can be done through long-term offtake agreements, equity stakes or outright acquisition of mining rights, which will be essential to insulate from supply disruptions and price volatility.