Oil prices will be immune to the Trump upheaval

The Joe Biden administration's sanctions on Russian oil hit the latter's oil exports, sending the Brent crude benchmark above the $80 per barrel.

- Shreerupa Mitra

Imagine a decidedly grim picture: The Donald Trump administration maintains the sanctions or fails to secure Congressional approval to lift them or even escalates restrictions, gradually throttling Russian oil, then has trouble with Iran, unleashing additional sanctions, and is locked in a tariff war with Canada.

Russia remains the world's third-largest oil producer despite the sanctions. It has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China's top supplier, largely through "shadow fleets"—ageing tankers that evade the US sanctions—that feed China's small, privatised teapot refineries. Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, it has become India's leading crude supplier. Yet, the steadiness in oil prices owes less to Russian supply dynamics and more to broader market pressures.

The seismic shift has been the emergence of the US as the world's largest oil producer. It now wields its geopolitical influence through its export strategies while dealing with the complexities of its global refinery configurations. Moreover, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meticulously orchestrates the flow of barrels into the market, propping up a healthy oil price. Meanwhile, a surge in production from non-Opec players has added a new twist to the global energy narrative. Together, these forces will maintain an uneasy but deliberate balance in the global oil equation.