NDCs can help limit global warming: UNEP

Full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the emission reduction targets of countries, can limit global warming to 2.3-2.5 degrees Celsius (°C) over pre-industrial levels, compared to 2.6-2.8°C based on commitments up to last year.

- Jayashree Nandi

But, implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1'C last year, United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap report titled “Off Target” said on Tuesday.

To be sure, methodological updates account for 0.1 degree C of the improvement, and given the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement which will cancel another 0.1 degree C, the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle, the UNEP report has warned. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2 degrees C, while pursuing efforts to keep it below 1.5 degrees C.

If Nationally Determined Contributions are fully implemented by 2035, global warming would reach 2.3 degrees Celsius—down from 2.6 degrees in last year’s projections. But, this also considers the US's NDC which is unlikely to be implemented, according to UNEP’s emission gap report.