IMF lifts India, global growth outlook

India to grow at 6.4% in 2025-26, while global GDP growth is expected to be 3%

- Roshan Kishore

The world economy is expected to do marginally better in 2025 and 2026 than it was three months ago, the International Monetary Fund said in its July update to the World Economic Outlook. Global GDP growth is expected to be 3% and 3.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively compared to 2.8% and 3%.

The broad-based upgrade of global growth prospects has also increased India’s growth rate to 6.4% each in 2025-26 and 2026-27 compared to 6.2% and 6.3% in the April projections.

The upgrade to growth is primarily a result of US tariffs becoming lower than what they were in April and front-loading of trade in anticipation of higher tariffs in the future. To be sure, risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside and the global economy will still do badly compared to its 2024 growth of 3.3% and pre-pandemic average of 3.7%.