WHEELS WITHIN WHEELS

A friendly US visit to China amid a tense rivalry; alliances being redrawn around India; a geopolitical neighbourhood in competition and conflict: it looks set to be a year of shifting sands

- Rezaul H Laskar

In our rapidly changing world, amid a geopolitical transformation driven by the unravelling of long-held partnerships, India's foreign policy mandarins face quite the juggling act, in 2026.

India's diplomatic calendar is packed, to begin with, with visits expected by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa. And that's just in the first two months, even as India hosts the AI Impact Summit and takes on the rotating BRICS presidency.

The visit of the two European Union (EU) leaders in January is expected to lead to the signing of a long-gestating free-trade agreement between India and the 27-member European bloc. Described as one of the largest trade deals in decades, it could set the tone for the year.

But foreign ministry officials, who have worked tirelessly on the FTA with counterparts in other departments, will have little time to celebrate as their focus shifts to other, more-challenging relationships.

The biggest foreign policy-related development in 2025 was the unprecedented strain that hit India-US relations as US President Donald Trump slapped Indian goods with a 50% tariff, tightened visa regimes, and moved away from many of the strengths of a relationship built up by Republican and Democratic administrations alike over two-and-a-half decades. The cost in terms of trust between New Delhi and Washington has been tremendous.