IMF Cuts India Growth Estimates

World GDP growth this year will be 2.8%, lower than the Jan forecast of 3.3%: WEO

- Roshan Kishore

NEW DELHI: The International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), arguably the most important institutional economic forecast in the world, said world gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year will be 2.8%, half a percentage point lower than its January forecast of 3.3%.

While IMF projected that India's growth in this fiscal year will slow marginally, it still expected the nation to be the fastest growing major economy in the world.

While the global economy would have slowed down even without the April 2 tariffs announced by the Trump administration, it will now do worse. Whether or not the paused reciprocal tariffs are brought back would not make much difference for this year's growth prospects, the IMF said. Even in 2026, global GDP growth will only increase to 3%, 0.3 percentage points lower than what the January WEO projections said. Every major economy in the WEO's April 2025 projection has seen a downward revision in growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 compared to January 2025.

The US, in contrast to the Trump administration's claims about the beneficial effects of the tariffs, will see its growth rate fall down by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% in 2025. China, the second largest economy in the world and the biggest target of Trump's trade war, will grow at 4% in 2025, 0.6 percentage points lower than the January 2025 forecast.