LESS SELECTION, MORE PRICES

The US tariff rate may have dropped significantly from its spring high - a truce in the US-China trade war is set to expire on Aug. 12 - but continues to shape the forthcoming holiday period. Manufacturing activity is way down from a year ago for small- and medium-sized US toy companies, Ahearn said

- 

With summer in full swing in the United States, retail executives are sweating a different season. It's less than 22 weeks before Christmas, a time when businesses that make and sell consumer goods usually nail down their holiday orders and prices.

But President Donald Trump's vacillating trade policies have complicated those end-of-year plans. Balsam Hill, which sells artificial trees and other decorations online, expects to publish fewer and thinner holiday catalogs because the featured products keep changing with the tariff rates the president sets, postpones and revises.

“The uncertainty has led us to spend all our time trying to rejigger what we're ordering, where we're bringing it in, when it’s going to get here,” Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Hill parent company Balsam Brands, said. “We don't know which items we're going to have to put in the catalog or not.”

Months of confusion over which foreign countries’ goods may become more expensive to import has left a question mark over the holiday shopping season. US retailers often begin planning for the winter holidays in January and typically finalize the bulk of their orders by the end of June. The seesawing tariffs already have factored into their calculations.

The consequences for consumers? Stores may not have the specific gift items customers want come November and December. Some retail suppliers and buyers scaled back their holiday lines rather than risking a hefty tax bill or expensive imports going unsold. Businesses still are setting prices but say shoppers can expect many things to cost more, though by how much depends partly on whether Trump's latest round of “reciprocal” tariffs kicks in next month.