Earnings start, inflation data pose tests for resilient US stocks market

US stocks have kicked off 2026 on a strong note, but could face turbulence in the coming days with the start of corporate earnings season, fresh inflation data and rising geopolitical uncertainty.

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The S&P 500 is up nearly 2% already in January, on the heels of the benchmark index in 2025 closing out its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains. Stocks jumped on Friday after mixed jobs data that saw traders maintain expectations for more interest rate cuts this year.

The market's recent strength has defied an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape. After a US military operation that seized Venezuela's leader, officials in President Donald Trump's administration spoke of acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the military. Investors point to a strong outlook for corporate profits, easing monetary policy and coming fiscal stimulus as supports for a bull market that is in its fourth year.

"On balance for this year, the foundation for the market is solid," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management.

"As we're starting January, the market may be underappreciating some of the events on the horizon that could likely produce higher volatility," Arone said. "It just seems a little too quiet." While geopolitical events have boosted the safe-haven appeal of gold, stocks have largely shrugged off the uncertainty, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. The Cboe Volatility Index on Friday was not far above its low point from 2025.