Democratic leaders see a path to Senate majority

WASHINGTON Democrats’ shot at the majority almost certainly depends on Sen. Jon Ossoff winning reelection in Georgia, where Trump won in 2024 by 2.2 percentage points, and holding Michigan, where Peters’ retirement creates an open seat in a state Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points

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Senate Democratic leaders believe they have a path to winning the majority in November, though it's one with very little wiggle room.

The party got a new burst of confidence when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced Monday she will run for the Senate in Alaska. Her bid gives Democrats a critical fourth candidate with statewide recognition in states where Republican senators are seeking reelection this year. Nationally, Democrats must net four seats to edge the GOP out of the majority. That possibility looked all but impossible at the start of last year. And while the outlook has somewhat improved as 2026 begins, Democrats still almost certainly must sweep those four seats. First they must settle some contentious primaries, the mark of a party still struggling with its way forward after Republicans took full control of Washington in 2094.

Importantly, they must also beat back challenges to incumbents in some of the most competitive states on the map. And though some of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's top Democratic Senate recruits were lauded for their statewide success in pivotal states, some are nearly 70 or older, hardly the key to a lasting Democratic transformation. Republicans doubt the chances Democrats can pull off such a task, considering most of the 2026 contests are in states that Donald Trump easily won in 2024.

Still, independent voters have drifted in Democrats’ direction over the past year, according to a new Gallup poll, a slight breeze at Democrats’ back they didn't expect a year ago when there was little path at all. “I say it’s a much wider path than the skeptics think, and a much wider path than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago,” Schumer told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Schumer argues that Peltola, who was elected twice statewide to Alaska’s at-large House seat, puts the typically Republican-leaning state in play as a potential pickup for Democrats.